The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

[Dog Face Pony Soldier]

From Bloomberg:

Automakers with ambitious plans to roll out more than a hundred new battery-powered models in the next five years appear to be forgetting one little thing: Drivers aren’t yet buzzed about the new technology.

Electric cars—which today comprise only 1 percent of auto sales worldwide, and even less in the U.S.—will account for just 2.4 percent of U.S. demand and less than 10 percent globally by 2025, according to researcher LMC Automotive.

2.4% of US demand by 2025!

[RABAUKE]

Meanwhile in Ontario Canada, land of the politically correct and having green everything shoved down our throats....government projections for EV sales fall way short.

https://postmedia.us.janrainsso.com/...t-analysts-say

[mkoesel]

Nevertheless, the data from LMC in the same article shows that electrified vehicle sales will account for 15% of the US market by then (about four times what they are today). So, growth is slow, but steady. Range anxiety continues to be a major barrier to EV adoption. Once that is no longer a widespread concern, EV adoption rates will be poised for sharper growth. This is why the automakers are hedging bets.

[RABAUKE]

I think once range anxiety isn't an issue sales will start to improve but Im not convinced that the ICE will be going away then, I suspect that a lot of folks like me won't be rushing to buy on EV.

[mkoesel]

You're right - ICE-powered vehicles (including hybrids) will remain popular for some time even after EV cost, variety, range, and "refueling" times/convenience achieve parity with them. But you will see automakers begin to scale back ICE offerings just as they have cut back on the use of naturally aspirated engines and manual transmissions over the last few years.

[jmg]

Just last year I was on a remote island in the Pacific. Tiny airport, had to take a ferry to get to the next island that didn't have an airport. I was amazed that I saw so many electric 5 passenger motorcycles. We strapped out bags to the top and zipped through the tiny barely paved roads. Then the driver told us we were out of battery. Oh no! I was annoyed. Now we have to transfer to another motorcycle? Nope. We pulled into what I can only describe as a tiny lot with a single hut next to a long line of large batteries, all charging. We pulled up next to one of the batteries, a group of 3 kids, probably 10-16 years of age in t-shirts and sandals, started to remove our battery and place the new one in, like a pit crew in the indy 500. 3 minutes later we were back down the tiny windy road, fully charged.

I saw the future in a 3rd world speck of an island in the middle of the pacific. It didn't have an airport, the roads weren't wide enough for more than one car, but it had solved the EV problem... somehow.



Right now, for my situation, I find the EV the perfect compliment to my ICE to split duties between commuting and weekend driving. I can imagine that we will have our fun sporty cars and utility vehicles for long range driving, and an EV for trips around the city doing errants, going to work, dropping off the kids etc. I think we need to push for solar panels on more and more homes so that we will be able to ease the load off our current grid into something clean, renewable, and convenient.

Besides the idea of having quick swap battery stations, I also like the idea of a range extending engine that charges the car battery as we drive, much like the REx on my i3. A 2 gal tank nets an extra 80 miles. Why not a 4 gal tank? 160 miles? There's plenty of solutions we already have to make the EV more accessible and utilitarian than it already is, and I'm sure there are even more that we have yet to discover.

As far as demand and sales: This is a question of economics. Make EVs cheap enough and usable enough, and the largest market for automobiles will buy them: the <$20k range. We're almost there with the Bolt. These people don't care about performance or how cool an ICE sounds. They want it cheap, reliable, and easy to use, EV or ICE.

[Bt12]

Canada isn’t the driver of EV adoption... I’m not entirely sure what Canada is the driver of lol. It’s china

[RABAUKE]

Originally Posted by Bt12

Canada isn’t the driver of EV adoption... I’m not entirely sure what Canada is the driver of lol. It’s china

I don't disagree but North America is a large combined marketplace and Canada always seems to be reflective of what the US is doing. I suspect that the numbers are similar for EV sales as a percentage in the US. As earlier mentioned economics is the driver, and at this point even with huge government rebates folks aren't buy EV's in the numbers the government has projected.

[Bt12]

In EV’s US is behind. Post the Paris accord, every country that matters essentially implemented a target for ICE ban along the lines of 2025-2030. If u go to parts of Europe like Amsterdam or Finland etc you’ll see the difference. China is driving EV’s because they can’t breath and they are behind in ICE. US is behind on this. Sad but true...

As for the economics it’s entirely a function of the battery. The battery is expected to be down to $100/kwh as the new real EV models come out 2020-2025

Also sad but true is the tax increase that’s sold as a tax cut.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Bt12

Post the Paris accord, every country that matters essentially implemented a target for ICE ban along the lines of 2025-2030.

Sure, but the point of the article linked in the OP is to shed light on numbers which directly challenge the viability of these plans. Unenforcible policy has no meaningful value, so these nations will have to adapt to the technical and economic realities of EV vehicle production. They know full well that forcing the automakers to head down a path of unprofitable product mix will merely swap out environmental issues for economic issues.

What you see happening today is in effect a negotiation process - on one side, demands are made by regulators while on the other side the manufacturers will respond with counter offers grounded in more realistic goals. The end result is that the ICE will live far longer than 2025 or even 2030. I've said before that 2040-ish seems like a reasonable timeframe by which we'll see mass pruning of ICE products and firm, reasonable plans to decommission the existing fleet of ICE vehicles. I don't see any reason to adjust that expectation yet.

How the autonomous, ride-sharing model plays into all of this remains somewhat unknown. It could have a large impact, too. However, that is a major wildcard which has its own set of concerns and hurdles.

[Red Bread]

However it works out, there will be more one speed cars soon than those with three pedals. Lazy f'ers.

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Sure, but the point of the article linked in the OP is to shed light on numbers which directly challenge the viability of these plans. Unenforcible policy has no meaningful value, so these nations will have to adapt to the technical and economic realities of EV vehicle production. They know full well that forcing the automakers to head down a path of unprofitable product mix will merely swap out environmental issues for economic issues.

What you see happening today is in effect a negotiation process - on one side, demands are made by regulators while on the other side the manufacturers will respond with counter offers grounded in more realistic goals. The end result is that the ICE will live far longer than 2025 or even 2030. I've said before that 2040-ish seems like a reasonable timeframe by which we'll see mass pruning of ICE products and firm, reasonable plans to decommission the existing fleet of ICE vehicles. I don't see any reason to adjust that expectation yet.

How the autonomous, ride-sharing model plays into all of this remains somewhat unknown. It could have a large impact, too. However, that is a major wildcard which has its own set of concerns and hurdles.

Economics is dictated by battery cost. The new gens of battery is conprable which is the upcoming models. I hardly think it’s a negotiation at this point.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Bt12

Economics is dictated by battery cost.

And economies of scale in other parts electric vehicles such as motors and driveline components. The fewer of something you build, the more it costs. And since you can't make money building things that people aren't buying, well, you can see the issue there.

The new gens of battery is conprable which is the upcoming models.

I can't parse that, sorry.

I hardly think it’s a negotiation at this point.

Everything in politics is negotiations.

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

And economies of scale in other parts electric vehicles such as motors and driveline components. The fewer of something you build, the more it costs. And since you can't make money building things that people aren't buying, well, you can see the issue there.



I can't parse that, sorry.



Everything in politics is negotiations.

You do realize there is no power train? And electric motors are. Really not expensive

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Bt12

You do realize there is no power train?

Do you realize that a Tesla uses a single speed step-down gear box? No? Well, now you do. An so do other EVs. See now, this exchange isn't pointless after all - you learned something.

And electric motors are. Really not expensive

Neither are gasoline engines. I'll let you Google "economies of scale" since that seems to have gone right over your head too.

[amw896]

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

Meanwhile in Ontario Canada, land of the politically correct and having green everything shoved down our throats....government projections for EV sales fall way short.

https://postmedia.us.janrainsso.com/...t-analysts-say

Doesn't matter. As long as our douche nugget pm, justin TURDeau keeps wearing colourful socks and achieves nothing, people will continue to be entertained by the liberal agenda.

Bring back Harper!

[bailyhill]

Hello
Well there are lots of models, but there is no inventory at most dealers. What is also sad, is that there are no sale associates who want to sell the EV's as they make their money off of ICE. Then try to find a sa who know anything about them and is enthusiastic. They are few and far between. That will all change.

Bailyhill

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by bailyhill

Hello
Well there are lots of models, but there is no inventory at most dealers. What is also sad, is that there are no sale associates who want to sell the EV's as they make their money off of ICE. Then try to find a sa who know anything about them and is enthusiastic. They are few and far between. That will all change.

Bailyhill

Exactly. The dealership model is the real problem. Volvo is following Tesla's lead and others will follow soon. I personally love the bartering and getting a good deal, but the vast majority of consumers would fare better under a simplified pricing structure, like buying a phone.

[Viffermike]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

Exactly. The dealership model is the real problem. Volvo is following Tesla's lead and others will follow soon.

This is a semi-tangential takeaway of the coming "new car-buying order" that is almost as important as the shift to alt-fuel vehicles itself -- yet is never talked about beyond Tesla's issues with the lawfulness of its storefronts and selling philosophy. That a major carmaker (Volvo) with a substantial brick-and-mortar dealer network, a full model line (about to be two of 'em), and thousands of captive loyal customers is adopting it means it's only a matter of time before dealers as we know them go the way of the Peregrine falcon, the California condor, the Bengal tiger, the red panda ...

... and ICE, though ICE will be around for longer.

[seetohey]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Do you realize that a Tesla uses a single speed step-down gear box? No? Well, now you do. An so do other EVs. See now, this exchange isn't pointless after all - you learned something.



Neither are gasoline engines. I'll let you Google "economies of scale" since that seems to have gone right over your head too.

Great points! While I'm not against EVs, I dislike them needing government incentives and ponzi schemes to stay afloat.

[Bt12]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Do you realize that a Tesla Model uses a single speed step-down gear box? No? Well, now you do. An so do other EVs. See now, this exchange isn't pointless after all - you learned something.



Neither are gasoline engines. I'll let you Google "economies of scale" since that seems to have gone right over your head too.

definitely learned something on the single step down gear box.

The economies of scale arguement is exactly how EVs become economic. What i was saying earlier regarding the new generation of batteries is that... most new models coming out in circa 2025 timeframe will be on the $100kwh batteries which is equal to the cost of a ICE engine, but does require a conservative penetration estimate to bring down manufacturing cost. The standard around that time is 8-1-1 technology vs Tesla’s current NCA technology. Someone else wrote about solid state on another thread and...that is suppose to bring the battery cost below that of an ICE.

Additionally the maintenance is cheaper as there are studies around less moving parts in an electric vehicle vs that of an engine.

The reason you dont see the widespread adoption is largely becuase the mandates just came out and consumers only just accepted it. The industry is trying to solve for convenience in terms or recharging right now. That is still evolving but this is driven by China.

Look i love ICE engines and im not a greeny, but the truth of the matter is that we are at the inflection point here. Focusing on lower canadian and us sales is the wrong conversation. Focus should be on chinese adoption, i dont have the chinese EV stats in hand but their adoption is off the charts... granted they have a lottery for license plates and EV,s by pass the lottery.


Love the banter...

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Bt12

What i was saying earlier regarding the new generation of batteries is that... most new models coming out in circa 2025 timeframe will be on the $100kwh batteries which is equal to the cost of a ICE engine, but does require a conservative penetration estimate to bring down manufacturing cost.

It still leaves a chicken-egg scenario because, as I said earlier, cost is only one barrier to widespread EV adoption.

Additionally the maintenance is cheaper as there are studies around less moving parts in an electric vehicle vs that of an engine.

Yes, and there is absolutely no doubt that the manufacturers would love to see EV sales climb quickly for this reason and other cost-related reasons. But again, customers still have to want them.

The industry is trying to solve for convenience in terms or recharging right now. That is still evolving but this is driven by China.

It's being driven by a lot of different parties, and while it will all get sorted, it will take time. Like I say, the entire point of the article is that expected timelines for all of this, particularly those held by groups with political agendas to peddle, aren't necessarily realistic.

Focusing on lower canadian and us sales is the wrong conversation.

When it comes to solving the complex EV puzzle, there is more than one relevant topic for conversation. If you are ignoring conversations being had by objectively intelligent people who are raising valid concerns, then you are allowing yourself to be manipulated by the aforementioned parties and their agendas.

While China and some others may have a political and cultural upper hand to essentially force their population in to EV at a faster rate than what would happen organically, that is not true in many regions. Most automakers operate on a global scale. It's a very large complex machine and there are many moving parts to consider. You can't canyon carve an ocean liner.